It can’t be known for sure, but it might very well be the case that the US and Belarus are colluding with one another to manufacture the optics of a Polish-Russian Color Revolution plot against Lukashenko in order to manipulate the electorate. The mostly Russophilic population would be prompted into supporting his re-election for patriotic reasons in the face of what they’ve been misled into thinking is Polish-led Hybrid War aggression despite possibly disliking his de-facto pivot towards the US. The opposition, meanwhile, might also vote for him in order to defend their increasingly Western-friendly leader from what they’ve been misled into thinking is Russian-led Hybrid War aggression. In reality, no genuine Color Revolution threat exists, at least not at this point, since Lukashenko is purposely allowing the disturbances to fester in order to electorally exploit these complementary narratives of a so-called “foreign threat” to his leadership. Upon winning re-election like most observers predict will happen, he can then crack down on Russian-friendly individuals and organizations for “national security reasons” while simultaneously pivoting more openly towards the US.
Hybrid War Blowback
This is an extremely risky strategy that could very easily backfire in the interim prior to the election but also especially in its aftermath. If Lukashenko gets “cold feet” for whatever reason and begins seriously reconsidering the “wisdom” of pivoting towards the US, then America might fully unleash its Hybrid War wrath against him after the national leader dangerously allowed it to grow to its present point for the self-interested political reasons that were already explained. The opposite side of this same scenario coin is that the mostly Russophilic population might become politically radicalized by Lukashenko’s expected full-on pivot towards the US and impending crackdown against them and their representatives, which could generate a self-sustaining cycle of grassroots Color Revolution unrest. The only credible alternative to that possibility transpiring is if Lukashenko becomes the dictator that the West previously fearmongered that he already was, albeit a pro-Western dictator like many in the “Global South” whose gross human rights abuses against their people are largely ignored by the Mainstream Media because they’re implementing pro-American policies of some sort.Belarus Is Doing America’s Bidding by Blaming Russia for Its Color Revolution Unrest