Coronavirus Fact-Check #8: “New daily cases” and the second wave – OffGuardian

All the media have banners and counters and big red numbers of the front page. They proclaim the “new daily cases”.

For example, today, it was reported that Spain has 22,000 new cases, Italy has 37,000, the UK 24,000 and the US 116,000. They are ubiquitously called “new daily cases”.

It wasn’t until I was working on my rebuttal of Moon of Alabama that I realised so many people take this statement literally. They shouldn’t, it is incorrect in almost every respect. To be clear here – “new daily cases” are probably not new, they certainly didn’t all happen in one day and they definitely aren’t “cases”.

The more people you test, the more “infections” you will find, (especially when your test has a known risk of false positives).

If you increase the number of tests you run, you will increase the number of infections you find. That is not a disease spreading.

An analogy:

If you move a piece of furniture in your living room and find a spider underneath it on Saturday, and then the next day you move twenty items of furniture, and find 10 spiders it would be absolutely crazy to say there was 900% daily increase in spiders or that spiders are “increasing exponentially”.

Those spiders were probably there yesterday. You just weren’t looking for them.

…and if you hadn’t gone out of your way to find them, would you ever have known they were even there?

Coronavirus Fact-Check #8: “New daily cases” and the second wave

Published by TCTTNews

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