Understanding the Outcome of the War for Nagorno-Karabakh – Unz Review

A lot has happened very rapidly in the past two days and I will begin this analysis by a few bullet points summarizing what just happened (not in any particular order, including chronological):

* The war which has just ended was a real bloodbath and it has seen more casualties (counting both sides) than what the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of warfare in Afghanistan

* This war is now over, Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed along the line of contact. So far, neither side has dared to resume hostilities (more about that below).

* There have been two days of celebrations in Baku where President Aliev has declared that the war was a triumph for Azeri forces and that Pashinian got nothing. He is right.

* The Azeris are now declaring that they want compensation from Armenia.

* There are now Turkish forces in Azerbaijan and Russian and Turkish forces have created a joint committee to coordinate actions.

* Erdogan has insisted that he wanted Turkey to send in peacekeepers, but Putin has categorically rejected this demand: like any other state, Azerbaijan has the undisputed right to invite foreign forces on its territory, but these forces will not have the status and rights of a peacekeeping force.

* Violent riots have broken out in Erevan where violent mobs have stormed government buildings, beaten officials and sacked the Parliament.

* Seventeen Armenian opposition parties have declared that they want a committee of national salvation and the resignation of Pashinian.

* Nobody knows where Pashinian is hiding, but he seems to still be somewhere in Armenia.

* These mobs also destroyed the Soros offices in Erevan and they are now looking for Pashinian “the traitor” to lynch him.

* Pashinian has complained on Twitter that his offices were sacked, that a computer, his driver license and, I kid you not, a bottle of perfume (poor perfumed baby!) were stolen.

* The Russian peacekeeping force will be constituted of subunits of the 15th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade which itself is part of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District. It will include about 2000 armed soldiers, APCs and IFVs, specialized vehicles (EW, C3I, etc.), drones and air defense systems.

* Russians peacekeepers will stay deployed in this area for no less than 5 years.

* Russia will now control both the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) corridor and the Nakhichevan corridor.

Now let’s look at the position of the parties at the end of this war and compare them.

Understanding the Outcome of the War for Nagorno-Karabakh

Published by TCTTNews

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